Seasonal modification of the association between temperature and adult emergency department visits for asthma: a case-crossover study

BACKGROUND The objective of this study is to characterize the effect of temperature on emergency department visits for asthma and modification of this association by season. This association is of interest in its own right, and also important to understand because temperature may be an important confounder in analyses of associations between other environmental exposures and asthma. For example, the case-crossover study design is commonly used to investigate associations between air pollution and respiratory outcomes, such as asthma. This approach controls for confounding by month and season by design, and permits adjustment for potential confounding by temperature through regression modeling. However, such models may fail to adequately control for confounding if temperature effects are seasonal, since case-crossover analyses rarely account for interactions between matching factors (such as calendar month) and temperature. METHODS We conducted a case-crossover study to determine whether the association between temperature and emergency department visits for asthma varies by season or month. Asthma emergency department visits among North Carolina adults during 2007-2008 were identified using a statewide surveillance system. Marginal as well as season- and month-specific associations between asthma visits and temperature were estimated with conditional logistic regression. RESULTS The association between temperature and adult emergency department visits for asthma is near null when the overall association is examined [odds ratio (OR) per 5 degrees Celsius = 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.02]. However, significant variation in temperature-asthma associations was observed by season (chi-square = 18.94, 3 degrees of freedom, p <0.001) and by month of the year (chi-square = 45.46, 11 degrees of freedom, p <0.001). ORs per 5 degrees Celsius were increased in February (OR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.10), July (OR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.29), and December (OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.07) and decreased in September (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.87, 0.97). CONCLUSIONS Our empirical example suggests that there is significant seasonal variation in temperature-asthma associations. Epidemiological studies rarely account for interactions between ambient temperature and temporal matching factors (such as month of year) in the case-crossover design. These findings suggest that greater attention should be given to seasonal modification of associations between temperature and respiratory outcomes in case-crossover analyses of other environmental asthma triggers.